The US-Israel military campaign against Iran is now entering its third week, and US oil prices show no signs of calming down, with analysts warning of another turbulent session ahead. Petroleum expert Patrick De Haan has projected that gasoline could reach $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon at US pumps, noting that the $4 threshold remains a real possibility. The energy market disruption is rapidly becoming one of the most severe in recent years.
When the US and Israel first struck Iran on February 28, gasoline was selling below $3 per gallon nationally. Three weeks later, that average has jumped to $3.70, representing a 23% increase driven entirely by the ongoing military conflict. Every new escalation appears to send oil prices climbing higher, leaving consumers with little relief in sight.
Friday’s US strikes on Kharg Island, one of Iran’s most important oil hubs, deepened concerns about global energy supplies. Tehran’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz has effectively removed around 20% of the world’s oil supply from circulation. Brent crude briefly spiked to $106 per barrel Monday before easing to $103, while domestic US crude fluctuated between $94 and $100.
Some regions of the country have absorbed far more severe price hikes than others. California drivers are now paying over $5 per gallon on average, while certain Los Angeles stations have posted prices exceeding $8. Diesel used by the freight industry could reach $5.15 per gallon, raising concerns about secondary inflation in consumer goods. Oil executives from Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips all met with White House officials to flag worsening supply risks.
Stock markets responded cautiously to Monday’s slight oil price retreat, with the S&P 500 registering a 1% gain in early trading. Shares of major oil companies have reached all-time highs since the conflict began, even as broader market anxiety persists. The path forward for US oil prices remains uncertain and deeply tied to military and diplomatic developments in the Middle East.