Recent polling data indicates that Poland’s Civic Coalition (KO), while still the largest political group, may face challenges in forming a majority if an election were to take place today. The survey revealed that KO’s support has dipped slightly to 27.3% from 28.7% in the previous poll. In contrast, the Law and Justice (PiS) party experienced a gain of 2.8 percentage points, bringing their support to 20.6%. Meanwhile, the Confederation party has climbed to 14.1%.
In addition to these shifts, the poll highlighted that the Confederation of the Polish Crown garnered 8.4%, the Left achieved 7.1%, and Development Plus reached 6.5%. However, alliances such as Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which are aligned with the current governing faction, are now struggling, having dropped below the electoral threshold.
According to the projections, a coalition between KO and the Left would secure approximately 198 seats, falling short of the 231-seat majority by 33 seats. On the other hand, a potential alliance comprising PiS, Confederation, and Development Plus would also not meet the majority requirement, collectively amassing 224 seats. However, if the Confederation of the Polish Crown joins this right-wing bloc, the combined seat count could rise to an estimated 262, surpassing the majority threshold.
It is important to note that this survey was conducted prior to recent developments involving Polish Olympic Committee president Radosław Piesiewicz and the controversy surrounding an expensive Patek Philippe watch. As such, any political ramifications stemming from this issue are not reflected in the current poll results.